Government Flatlining on Climate: Mere 2% Emissions Drop Leaves Ireland Far Off Target and Puts Communities At Risk – Friends of the Earth

EPA provisional greenhouse gas emissions for 2025 show Ireland reduced emissions by only 2% in 2025 (the same reduction as the previous year) and highlight that the State remains far off course to meeting its 2030 climate obligations. The EPA notes that emissions now need to decrease by over 10% each year to 2030 for Ireland to meet its national climate target of a 51% reduction on 2018 levels.

Friends of the Earth has described the latest EPA emissions data [1] as yet another indication that climate action and compliance with climate law are not a priority for this Government.

• The EPA said that as expected, Ireland has provisionally remained within its first legally binding carbon budget from the period 2021 to 2025. This is an important milestone, however important caveats apply: two sectors, transport and industry, exceeded their sector limits by 8% and 9% respectively, with the EPA unable to provide information on agriculture sector due to shifting baselines. This was also aided by changes to how emissions are calculated.
• The EPA figures show progressive climate policies are having an impact. For example, residential emissions fell 5% to their lowest level since 1990, thanks in part to lower fossil fuel use and increased heat pump adoption. But overall Government action is falling far short of what is needed to put Ireland on track to meet its legally binding climate obligations. 

The EPA’s report comes amid concerning announcements from a range of state bodies.

• EPA projections in May showed that all of the main sectors are likely to exceed their emissions limits to 2030.  It noted that even if all planned Government policies are delivered, Ireland would cut emissions by only 25% by 2030, well below its national 51% target, and that Ireland will deliver at best just over half of its separate EU climate target. [2]
• The release comes as heat waves continue to impact large parts of Europe, with Met Éireann recently confirming that Ireland had the hottest May day ever recorded and one of the warmest Junes on record. [3]
• The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has also recently highlighted that by failing to act, Government risks costs up to €13billion annually by 2050 and that investing in emissions reduction and adaptation now is less costly than dealing with the consequences later. [4] 
    

Jerry Mac Evilly, Head of Policy in Friends of the Earth, said:

 “The 2% reduction, the same as last year, raises fundamental questions about the Government’s commitment to climate action in order to protect households and communities. The root of the problem is not simply about the choices that people are making at home or in their daily lives. Rather the responsibility lies with Government to defend urgent climate action and its own climate law, not the needs of the data centre and fossil fuel industries. 

The answer has to be more accountability and transparency not less. Yet Government has produced three bills with provisions which will disapply compliance with climate law. New policies in support of data centres and the development of an LNG terminal also risk locking Ireland further into even worse fossil fuel dependence at precisely the moment emissions need to fall sharply. [5] Ministers have not presented to the Oireachtas on how to get us back on track, despite obligations under climate law. [6] We also need a massive acceleration in retrofitting, rooftop solar, clean heating, and targeted supports for those most at risk in the upcoming Budget as detailed in recent Friends of the Earth analysis. [7]”

Notes

1. The latest EPA Emission data is available to download and read here: https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring--assessment/climate-change/air-emissions/EPA-Provisional-GHG-Emissions-1990-2025-web.pdf 

It notes:

• Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 2 per cent (-1.2 Mt CO2eq) in 2025.

• All sectors saw reductions in 2025 with substantive decreases of 3% to 7% were observed in energy, buildings, commercial/public and  industry sectors, with minor reductions under 2 percent in the transport, agriculture and waste sectors. 

The EPA notes “While greenhouse gases are declining overall, compliance with national and EU climate targets remains extremely challenging.

The national gap: Ireland’s national target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 51% in 2030 (compared to 2018). As of 2025, emissions have fallen by 14.5%. 

The EU gap: under EU legislation, Ireland must reduce greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors, such as Agriculture, Transport and Buildings, by 42% in 2030 (compared to 2005). As of 2025, a reduction of 12% has been achieved.” 

Regarding national sectoral limits. the EPA also stated that 'A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its absolute Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer possible given recent scientific updates to baseline historical agriculture emissions.'

2. See https://www.friendsoftheearth.ie/press/latest-epa-climate-data-points-to-government-side-lining-of-climate-action/  

3. See https://www.met.ie/may-maximum-temperature-record-broken-for-ireland  

4. See https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2026/07/01/stalling-climate-action-could-cost-ireland-13bn-annually-by-2050/ See also CCAC Annual Review 2026 - Electricity https://www.climatecouncil.ie/councilpublications/annualreviewandreport/CCAC-AR2026-2-electricity-final.pdf; Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. (2025). Energy in Ireland 2025 Report https://www.seai.ie/sites/default/files/publications/Energy-in-Ireland-2025.pdf 
5. See Critical Infrastructure Bill, Strategic Emergency Gas Reserve Bill, Dublin Airport Passenger Cap Bill. See also the General Scheme of the Private Wires Bill, the CRU Large Energy Users Connection Policy and the Government’s Large Energy User Action Plan 
6. Section 14 of the Climate Act establishes a reporting and accountability mechanism for Ministers, with oversight by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Environment and Climate Action. Under the Act, Ministers must attend before a Joint Oireachtas Committee to give an account of progress under the most recent Climate Action Plan, greenhouse gas trends, compliance with carbon budgets, and any measures envisaged to address failures to so comply, following the publication of the most recent EPA inventory and projections and the Climate Change Advisory Council’s annual review.
7. See ‘Friends of the Earth Ireland report, From Crisis to Security: Ireland’s Path to Fair Bills and Clean Energy’. The report has 50 recommendations for Government aimed at tackling energy poverty, improving energy security and accelerating the transition to clean, homegrown energy.https://www.friendsoftheearth.ie/assets/files/pdf/from_crisis_to_security_-_irelands_path_to_fair_bills_and_clean_energy.pdf