Energy Regulator Highlights Data Centre Demand as Major Security Risk

This week the CRU produced its ‘Ireland’s Electricity Sector Risk Preparedness Plan (2026-2029)’ [1]. The CRU’s plan highlights that the rapid growth in electricity demand, mainly from data centres, is a likely high-level risk that could lead to power shortages.

The Plan notes:

• - “Ireland’s electricity demand growth has significantly exceeded the EU average in recent years and is predicted to grow rapidly and beyond normal expected economic patterns in the coming years, primarily due to increasing data centre loads. In this scenario, this level of demand is anticipated to give rise to an adequacy gap with inadequate capacity available to supply this demand. ”
•  - “Rapid above-trend growth in electricity demand" (Scenario IE.RG) as a "High" rated risk with a "Likely" (1 in 2 to 5 years) probability. It highlights a projected 45% increase in electricity demand over the next decade and data centres are the primary driver of this colossal expansion, which are projected to account for 31% of all electricity demand by 2030
• - “Demand from data centres and large LEUs is anticipated to remain relatively consistent throughout the year, leading to a sustained high level of demand.”
• - When the grid experiences a fault, data centres quickly disconnect and switch to their own backup power. This sudden drop in demand could cause an unprecedented energy imbalance of over 1,150 MW, posing a serious risk to system stability across Ireland.
• - The plan relies on emergency gas and diesel generators and the retention of older units like Moneypoint (using heavy fuel oil) to address such challenges.
• - It mentions "supporting the transformation to net zero," but the immediate strategy is focused on maintaining the "Loss of Load Expectation" (LOLE) standard through fossil-fuel-based generation.

Reacting to the Plan, Jerry Mac Evilly, Campaigns Director in Friends of the Earth stated:

“This is the latest in a long line of warnings from Government bodies [2] that data centre expansion, even where linked to renewables development, poses major risks to our security, our environment and communities across Ireland. 

It’s important for the public to be aware that increasing reliance on fossil fuel power plants is fundamentally at odds with climate action and crucially does not resolve the Government’s long-term security problem. While building such power plants may prevent emergency scenarios, it does nothing to actively reduce long-term, increasing demand from data centres. 

And even if new data centres are "matched" by new renewable projects in a number of years  (following the regulator’s controversial decision on data centres in December) they still require 24/7 backup which again means more polluting gas power plants. 

Ultimately, by adding more gas plants (permanent, emergency and on-site) to meet data centre demand, Ireland's energy system becomes more vulnerable to gas supply disruptions. The Government's current strategy essentially swaps an electricity security risk for a gas risk. ”

Notes 

1 See https://www.cru.ie/publications/28943/ 

2 See for example SEAI Energy Projections Report, Climate Change Advisory Council Electricity Sector Review and NESC's 'Ireland’s Future Power System and Economic Resilience'