Middle East crisis exposes LNG as a liability for Ireland as Friends of the Earth call for investment in household energy security and clean energy alternatives

Friends of the Earth urge Government to respect recent Oireachtas Committee recommendations and pause LNG Bill amid global energy disruption, rising fossil fuel prices and growing pressure on household energy bills.

Friends of the Earth has warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East, combined with rising fossil fuel prices, exposes the risks of the Government's proposed development of a costly state-led LNG terminal [1]. 

The environmental NGO has noted that the latest fossil fuel crisis underscores the urgent need for Minister O’Brien to accept recommendations from the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate [2] for a new energy security assessment before any decision to proceed with the Government’s ‘Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve’ Bill. The organisation has also highlighted that rising fossil fuel prices are already hitting households,necessitating targeted supports, including retrofitting and heat pumps, particularly for those struggling with heating and electricity costs.

A deteriorating global fossil fuel security situation is emerging as the Middle East conflict drives energy price volatility and exposes the structural risks of reliance on global LNG markets. Analysts have noted that:

• The conflict threatens the worst disruption in fossil fuel markets since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy price crisis [3].

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 % of global LNG and oil trade flows, has effectively been halted, underlining the vulnerability of LNG reliance [4].

•  The benchmark LNG price in Europe has soared by roughly 50%  this week following the shutdown of a major Qatari LNG facility, which accounts for approximately 6% of total EU LNG imports and nearly 20% of global LNG export capacity [5].

• Qatar had been regarded as a viable alternative source of supply amid increasing EU scepticism of the U.S (which is now the EU’s largest importer of LNG) and was among a handful of countries granted an exemption from vetting requirements imposed under the EU-wide plan to phase-out Russian gas [6].

Jerry Mac Evilly, Head of Policy in Friends of the Earth, stated:

“Current events in the Middle East have laid bare the flaws in the Government’s gas-focused strategy. It is evident that LNG is a liability, not a solution, and that developing an expensive LNG terminal would further expose Ireland to these global price shocks and geopolitical risks that are far beyond Ireland’s control.

In light of the skyrocketing gas prices and disruption to global LNG trade, Friends of the Earth is calling on the Government to press pause on its proposed ‘Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve Bill’ and update its Energy Security Review.

In particular, we are calling on Minister O’Brien to accept the recommendations of the Oireachtas Committee on Climate to immediately carry out a new assessment of geopolitical risks, renewable energy deployment, battery storage, and demand reduction measures before any further development of the Bill. 

The Minister cannot ignore the fact that the Middle East conflict has exposed the flaws in the Government’s strategy; this new assessment is no longer optional, it is an urgent necessity to protect Irish households from further avoidable fossil fuel shocks and even higher energy bills.”

Clare O’Connor, Programme Coordinator for Heat, at Friends of the Earth Ireland said:

“Fossil fuel prices are rising rapidly and supports must be targeted at households already struggling with high heating and electricity costs. When people cut back on heat to manage their bills it can have serious consequences for health - particularly for older people, disabled people and those with long-term medical needs.

If we want people to switch away from fossil fuels and move towards energy independence, retrofitting and switching to heat pumps must be made more affordable and accessible for ordinary families.” [7]

Notes:

1 The estimated cost over a 10-year period is noted as €900million See section 4.4.4 https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/CEPA_-_Energy_Security_of_Supply_Study_Update_v2.pdf and https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_climate_environment_and_energy/2026-02-04/speech/81/ 

2  See Oireachtas Committee’s PLS report here - https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/34/joint_committee_on_climate_environment_and_energy/reports/2026/2026-02-26_report-on-pre-legislative-scrutiny-of-the-general-scheme-of-the-strategic-gas-emergency-reserve-bill-2025_en.pdf  

The PLS report includes the following:

• Before any approval, a cost benefit analysis must be released that compares the LNG project against alternatives like demand reduction and renewables. It must calculate the full lifetime costs to the taxpayer and consumers, while quantifying security benefits across different supply scenarios.

• Assessments must use supply and demand projections that align strictly with Ireland’s Climate Act, carbon budgets, and the Climate Action Plan, ensuring the project doesn't rely on "inflated" gas demand forecasts that contradict national climate targets.

• The CRU must assess the impact on consumer bills, ensuring that costs for the reserve are weighted toward large energy users rather than households and small businesses, while prohibiting the future transfer of the facility to any commercial entity

• There was major opposition to the proposed climate-related provisions in the General Scheme with stakeholders raising that the Minister cannot simply "deem" the LNG terminal compliant with climate law in advance

• LNG was noted as increasingly insecure and just as vulnerable to attack as existing pipelines, as well as significantly increasing energy costs for households. Rather than providing security, the terminal risks further locking Ireland into expensive fossil fuel dependency.

• Data centres were identified as the primary drivers of gas demand and system stress; It notes that the LNG terminal could effectively come to serve as an insurance policy for these high-demand industrial gas users, while the financial risk would be socialised across already struggling households.

3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-01/iran-crisis-threatens-worst-disruption-in-gas-markets-since-2022 

4 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-oil-shipping-costs-surge-all-time-high-us-iran-conflict-intensifies-2026-03-02/

5https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=6164787

6 https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/eu-exempt-us-qatari-gas-extra-checks-under-its-russian-gas-ban-draft-shows-2026-01-28/ 

7 CRU arrears data from December 2025 shows energy arrears at their highest level on record, with 14% of electricity customers and 26% of gas customers in arrears. The average electricity arrears balance is now 10% higher than in December 2024. [see https://cruie-live-96ca64acab2247eca8a850a7e54b-5b34f62.divio-media.com/documents/CRU202616_Arrears_and_NPA_disconnection_update_December.pdf] Ireland has failed to meet the June 2025 deadline to submit its Social Climate Plan to the European Commission. The Social Climate Plan (covering 2026–2032) is meant to use the EU's Social Climate Fund to help vulnerable households and micro-enterprises manage increased costs for buildings and transport. Ireland can access up to €663 million of this fund.